和讯投顾郭磊：春季躁动行情正式启动，有三个重点方向

Core Viewpoint - The market has officially entered the annual spring rally, driven by a combination of capital, policy, and sentiment, presenting a significant investment opportunity for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has stabilized and entered an appreciation channel, attracting global capital inflow and enhancing the foreign exchange return for export enterprises, resulting in a capital influx of several trillion [1] - The stable exchange rate opens up space for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, leading to increased liquidity in the market [1] - The first quarter is a peak period for important meetings and policy announcements, with this year marking the start of a new five-year plan, which is expected to bring more favorable and frequent policies [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The macro data and company earnings reports are in a quiet period before and after the Spring Festival, reducing the risk of negative surprises and allowing for a more relaxed market sentiment [1] - The market is poised for a collective bullish sentiment as the conditions of timing, location, and human factors align [1] Group 3: Key Investment Directions - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to lead the spring rally, attracting significant market attention and imagination [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector is supported by a global cyclical supply-demand pattern, with expectations for sustained performance as it enters a larger cyclical rhythm [1] - The brokerage sector, which reported outstanding performance last year but saw a divergence in stock prices, is anticipated to exhibit remarkable explosive potential when the market requires it [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The observation window for the end of the rally is around mid to late April, coinciding with the disclosure of 2025 annual reports and 2026 quarterly reports, which may lead to a cautious market as expectations shift to reality [2] - Understanding what to trade is only the first step; utilizing tools like the Chan theory to analyze internal structures and identify key buy-sell point transitions is crucial [2]