韩国造船业，进入“超级周期”

Group 1 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' shipyards in Ulsan and Jeollabuk-do are operating at full capacity, with 14 docks currently in operation and approximately 30 vessels under construction [1] - The company is implementing a "double-ship parallel docking operation" to expedite shipbuilding progress due to space constraints [1] Group 2 - The South Korean shipbuilding industry is expected to adopt a "reasonable pricing" strategy for selective order-taking, with nearly all ship slots sold out until 2028 [3] - The profitability of South Korean shipbuilders is anticipated to improve significantly due to the concentration of deliveries starting in 2026 and a stabilization in steel plate prices, which will alleviate shipbuilding costs [3] Group 3 - The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) forecasts that South Korea's shipbuilding exports will reach 10.46 million gross tons in 2026, a 7.9% increase from 2025, driven by an increase in commercial ship deliveries [4] - Despite the increase in export volume, the export value is expected to decline by 4% to $30.326 billion, attributed to a shift in the product structure rather than a drop in ship prices [4] Group 4 - The order structure in South Korea's shipbuilding industry is shifting towards high-value, specialized vessels, with LNG carriers expected to account for 33% of new orders [4] - NH Investment & Securities predicts that new ship orders in 2026 will total approximately $38.8 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on LNG carriers and tankers [6] Group 5 - New LNG carrier prices are projected to exceed $260 million in the next 6-12 months, reflecting a 5% increase from the end of 2025, with 77 LNG carriers expected to be ordered in 2026 [8] - 2026 is seen as a foundational year for South Korean shipbuilders to enter the U.S. defense market, with potential collaborations with Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) [8] Group 6 - There are mixed sentiments regarding the collaboration between South Korea and the U.S. in the defense market, with some analysts suggesting that tangible results may take years due to legal and investment prerequisites [10] - KIET predicts a significant increase in overseas production for South Korean shipbuilders, with production in Vietnam and the U.S. expected to grow by over 20% [10]