联储官员高呼降息150点，美财长力挺！“特朗普版QE”也来了

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture with policy direction and leadership transition, as President Trump pressures for more aggressive rate cuts and has proposed a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase plan to influence market rates [1][7][8] - The expectation is for a 150 basis point rate cut in 2026, with core inflation projected to remain at a moderate level of 2.3%, providing room for further cuts [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed that lowering interest rates is essential for stronger economic growth, citing previous successful policies from the 1990s as a precedent [2][8] Group 2 - Current market expectations show a low probability of a rate cut in January 2026, with a 13.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut and an 86.2% chance of maintaining current rates [3][4] - The selection process for the new Federal Reserve Chair is nearing completion, with candidates emphasizing a pro-rate cut stance, reflecting Trump's influence on the selection criteria [5][7] - The proposed $200 billion mortgage bond purchase plan aims to alleviate housing affordability issues, with the current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.16%, which is a significant concern for the administration [8][9]