今晚非农或不温不火，真正的行情引爆点在前值修正中？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is expected to show moderate growth in December, which may instill some confidence in investors for the new year, but it is not enough to cause excessive market excitement [1] Employment Data Expectations - The consensus forecast predicts an addition of 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.5%. However, the range for job additions is between 25,000 and 155,000, indicating uncertainty in hiring conditions [1][3] - If the forecast is accurate, the job addition will be a slight increase compared to the average monthly increase of 55,000 jobs in the first 11 months of 2025 and slightly higher than the preliminary figure of 64,000 jobs in November [1] Market Impact - The non-farm employment report is crucial for traders as it significantly influences Federal Reserve policy expectations, potentially leading to substantial fluctuations in stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets [1] - A weak non-farm employment report would reinforce market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely leading to a weaker dollar and a potential initial rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by concerns about economic growth dominating the market [1][2] Job Market Indicators - The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a significant decline in job openings, which is a leading indicator of future hiring intentions. This decline suggests a decrease in employer confidence and may foreshadow weaker non-farm job growth [4][5] - The ongoing decline in the labor resignation rate indicates that workers are less confident in external job opportunities, further signaling a cooling labor market [5] Data Revision Importance - Experienced traders recognize that revisions to previous months' employment data can significantly alter market perceptions of labor market strength. A substantial downward revision of October and November's job data could reveal a more severe employment situation than the December figures suggest [7] - Historical trends show that conflicting signals between initial and revised non-farm data often lead to significant market volatility [7] Future Employment Market Outlook - Economists generally expect the U.S. labor market to remain stable in 2026, with some positive signals in hiring activity and a slowdown in layoffs. The labor market is anticipated to maintain a moderate state without extreme fluctuations [8] - The growth in job positions has primarily been concentrated in sectors benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, particularly healthcare and government [9] - A notable trend for 2026 will be employers' focus on retaining existing employees rather than aggressive hiring or layoffs, with increased investments in employee skill enhancement and retraining [9]