2026年尿素价格重心或进一步下移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the urea market is expected to experience a downward trend in 2025, with a price range between 1915 yuan/ton and 1585 yuan/ton, reflecting a volatility of 17.23% due to high supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [1] - In 2026, the urea industry will continue to expand capacity, but demand growth is limited, leading to a forecast of weak price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, with an additional 6.3 million tons of urea capacity expected in 2025 and a projected production capacity of 7.5 million tons in 2026, which is a 6.56% year-on-year increase [2] - Inventory levels are anticipated to remain above 1 million tons for most of 2025, with even greater pressure expected in 2026 [2] - Agricultural demand is stable but modest, estimated at around 24 million tons in 2025, while industrial demand is expected to decline in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Current profit levels in the industry are relatively good, with no losses reported for fixed-bed units in 2025, and newer coal chemical units showing higher profits compared to older ones [3] - However, profit compression is anticipated in 2026 due to sustained high supply and potential decreases in coal prices, which may weaken cost support for the urea industry [3] Group 4 - Export policies are identified as a significant variable affecting market trends in 2026, with China implementing a quota system in 2025 that allowed for approximately 5 million tons of exports [4][6] - The likelihood of continued domestic exports remains high under conditions of high supply, especially if prices remain low, which could lead to a shift from quota exports to unrestricted exports [6] - Overall, the supply growth is expected to significantly outpace demand growth in 2026, maintaining a surplus in the market and further lowering urea price levels, while export policy changes will be crucial to monitor [6]