Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-09 07:44Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that the profitability preview for Macau gaming stocks in Q4 last year shows that operational leverage in the industry should have significantly improved, excluding additional operational expenses related to the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, as well as costs associated with the closure of satellite casinos by SJM Holdings (00880) [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The industry’s EBITDA is expected to increase by 13% year-on-year to $2.246 billion, supported by a 15% year-on-year rise in gross gaming revenue [1] - The EBITDA margin for the industry is projected to rise by half a percentage point year-on-year to 27.5% [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and MGM China (02282) are likely to see the largest quarter-on-quarter improvement in market share among operators [1] - Sands China (01928) is also expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in market share, while SJM is anticipated to experience the largest market share loss due to the closure of satellite casinos [1] - Wynn Macau's market share is expected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: EBITDA Projections - Among the six gaming operators, Galaxy Entertainment is expected to show the most significant EBITDA improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 31% to HKD 4.239 billion, benefiting from concert events and favorable VIP win rates [1] - Sands China’s EBITDA is projected to grow by 8% year-on-year to $616 million, which is about 5% lower than market expectations, primarily due to additional operational expenses from the NBA China Games in October and the National Games in November last year [1]