黄金狂飙4490美元！白银跟涨，普通人现在该“上车”还是“撤退”？

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the surge in precious metal prices, with gold reaching $4,490 per ounce and silver surpassing $77 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances [2][3] - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly the escalation of U.S. military actions in Venezuela and ongoing tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, have significantly increased global risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices [2] - The global gold supply is projected to grow only 2.1% in 2025, while demand, particularly from central banks and institutional investors, has surged, with a 15% year-on-year increase in central bank purchases [2] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is attributed to a dramatic rise in industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic industry, which now accounts for 55% of global silver demand [3] - The market for silver is characterized by lower depth, with its market value being only one-tenth of gold, leading to significant price volatility, often exceeding 5% in a single day [4] - Speculative investments in silver ETFs have led to high premium rates, indicating strong short-term speculative sentiment in the market [4] Group 3 - For ordinary investors considering gold, the article suggests a dual approach: emotional value for wealth preservation and investment return, with a recommendation for a "dollar-cost averaging" strategy to mitigate volatility [5][6] - The article warns that silver investments carry higher volatility, with price fluctuations being 1.5 times that of gold, and advises caution for inexperienced investors [6] - Long-term investors are encouraged to consider paper silver or silver ETFs to smooth out cost fluctuations, with potential price support from ongoing expansion in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 4 - Analysts are divided on future gold prices, with bullish forecasts from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,800 to $4,900 due to currency devaluation and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [7] - Cautious perspectives from firms like TD Securities suggest that strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds could lead to a price correction to the $4,000 range, recommending gradual reduction of positions during rebounds [8] - Neutral views, such as those from Bridgewater Associates, recommend maintaining a 5%-10% allocation of gold in financial asset portfolios as a stabilizer [9] Group 5 - The article emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a long-term hedge against inflation and risk diversification rather than a short-term profit tool, advising investors to avoid high leverage and to invest only spare funds [10]