百利好丨2026年全球经济展望

Global Economic Outlook - In 2026, the global economy is expected to continue developing under a moderate slowdown, with emerging markets gradually replacing developed economies as the key growth drivers [1] - The monetary policy will shift from accommodative to a wait-and-see approach, focusing on structural differentiation, policy window management, and tail risk control as the main strategies for 2026 [1] Economic Projections for Major Economies - The US economy is projected to slow down from 2.6% in 2025 to a range of 1.8%-2.0% in 2026, driven by chronic consumption issues and AI-related private capital expenditure [2] - The Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.1% in 2026, with manufacturing PMI gradually recovering but facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and weak personal consumption [2] - Japan's growth is anticipated to remain low, with potential quarterly fluctuations, as real wages decline and small businesses face increasing operational pressures [2] - Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region are showing mixed performance, with some exceeding expectations while others struggle with weak domestic demand and external pressures [2] Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.00%-3.25% [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a stable interest rate policy, with no clear plans for rate adjustments, while monitoring inflation close to the 2% target [3] - The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the benchmark rate at a low level of 0.5%, facing challenges in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3] - Emerging market central banks will continue a high-accommodation cycle, with varying policy rhythms based on local economic conditions [3] Investment Bank Perspectives - The IMF reports that global economic growth will continue to slow down moderately in 2026, with structural differentiation intensifying due to weakened growth momentum in developed economies [4] - OECD forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with the US economy expected to slow to 1.7% [5] - The Eurozone is projected to grow only 1%, indicating a relatively weak performance compared to other regions [5] Core Risk Overview - Geopolitical and trade risks include uncertainties from global tariff restructuring and regional conflicts that could disrupt supply chains and commodity prices [6] - Financial vulnerabilities are high in the Eurozone, with rising debt levels in emerging markets potentially leading to localized financial risks during interest rate adjustments [6] - Commodity price volatility, particularly in energy and food sectors, may disrupt central bank policy rhythms due to external factors like geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather [6] Summary - Globalization is significantly impacted by tariff conflicts, leading to disruptions in global trade chains and a high probability of economic slowdown [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, but the interplay between the Fed and the US government may heighten global financial risks [7] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are likely to benefit, with potential prices reaching between $5000-$5200, while the dollar index may decline below 90 [7] - Commodity markets show mixed signals, with energy prices struggling but potential rebounds in the second half of the year, while non-ferrous metals may rise due to increased global electricity demand and AI development [7]