CMES(SH:601872) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 08:32Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 17%-29% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the oil transportation sector and non-recurring gains from asset disposals and investments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan for the entire year of 2025, with a quarterly net profit for Q4 expected to be between 2.7-3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%-90% [1]. - The operating profit from oil transportation is projected to increase by approximately 200%-230% in Q4, primarily due to a significant rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates [2]. - Non-recurring income is expected to rise substantially, attributed to gains from the disposal of old vessels and fair value changes from stock investments [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average VLCC freight rate for Q4 is estimated at $95,500 per day, marking a 167% year-on-year increase, with a notable increase in profitability per vessel [2]. - The compliance phase for Venezuelan oil exports is expected to strengthen the oil transportation market in 2026, with a projected increase in VLCC transportation demand by approximately 1.4% [3]. - The company has delivered a new methanol dual-fuel VLCC, increasing its fleet capacity to 53 vessels, which enhances profit elasticity [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 6.5 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in the strong performance of the oil transportation market [4]. - The company's current reset cost is approximately 64.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio of 1.21 times, indicating potential for future price increases in shipping assets [4].