降息预期已然“锚定”！高盛：非农数据需大爆冷才能撼动美联储路径

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is unlikely to significantly alter market expectations for Federal Reserve policy unless there is a major surprise in the data, as current market pricing is firmly anchored to a path of easing starting mid-year [1] - The firm expects non-farm payroll growth of approximately 70,000, which aligns with the mainstream consensus, and believes that if the result is close to expectations, it will reinforce the existing macro narrative rather than disrupt it [1] - The market is currently pricing in two complete rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first 25 basis point cut expected around late April [1] Group 2 - If non-farm data falls below 50,000, it will be interpreted as below the economic breakeven employment growth rate, potentially causing investor concerns about a sharp slowdown in growth [2] - Conversely, if employment numbers exceed 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing expectations to June [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the data release will not trigger "dramatic volatility," as positioning and volatility pricing indicate limited interest in significant fluctuations [2]