均价跌至13.6万元！2025年12月新能源车降价幅度高达14.7%，机构人士：今年三季度行业利润率有望回升

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is expected to achieve a scale breakthrough by 2025, but it will still face multiple challenges, including pressure on profitability. However, with a return to rational competition and an optimized market structure, the overall profit margin in the industry is anticipated to recover by the third quarter of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the average profit margin of the automotive industry is projected to be around 4.4%, significantly lower than the average profit margin of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises. More than half of the dealers are expected to be in a loss position, with the average price of passenger cars decreasing by approximately 9% year-on-year [1] - Data from the Passenger Car Association indicates that in December 2025, the average price of discounted domestic new energy vehicles was 136,000 yuan, with an average price drop of 20,000 yuan, representing a decline of 14.7%. Throughout 2025, the average price of discounted new passenger cars was 191,000 yuan, with an average price reduction of 20,000 yuan, resulting in a decline of 10.5% [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The "price war" in the industry is showing signs of returning to rationality, with the number of discounted models decreasing by 42 compared to the previous year, totaling 177 models in 2025 [3] - The industry is expected to evolve into a structure characterized by a few leading companies, some mid-tier firms, and a large number of tail-end companies being reshuffled. Not all companies need to pursue sales volumes in the millions; some can find sustainable development paths by focusing on niche markets such as off-road and family vehicles [4] Group 3: Future Trends - The competition in the automotive industry in 2026 will shift towards the capital arena, where the competition will extend beyond technology, products, and customer relations to include capital strength, cash flow management, and merger and acquisition efficiency. The liquidity of capital and the efficiency of fund allocation will be critical in determining the survival and development space of enterprises amid the accelerating industry cycle adjustment and reshuffling [5]