从美国非农数据中解读的四大信号：经济预期、政策路径与资产联动

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for assessing the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with expectations of 73,000 new jobs in December and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, indicating labor market resilience [2][4] - The upcoming non-farm report is the first released on time after a 43-day government shutdown, enhancing its reliability compared to previous alternative indicators like ADP data [4] - Strong non-farm data could lead to a reduction in market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while weak data may reinforce expectations for monetary easing [5] Group 2 - Non-farm data influences global liquidity expectations and can lead to adjustments in U.S. Treasury yields, with a recent rise in yields reflecting market speculation on strong non-farm data [5] - Positive non-farm data typically supports the U.S. dollar and negatively impacts precious metals, while weak data has the opposite effect, influencing stock market performance across different sectors [6] - It is essential to analyze the quality of non-farm data and consider subsequent economic indicators to avoid misinterpretation, as discrepancies between non-farm data and other metrics may indicate structural economic issues [7]