国信证券：地缘政治博弈影响致油价震荡下跌 OPEC+宣布2026年一季度暂停增产

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that oil prices have experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic data, with expectations for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 projected between $55-65 and $52-62 per barrel, respectively [1][4] - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month [1][2] - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a complete withdrawal of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts significant oil supply surplus in 2026, with oil demand expected to grow by 86-138 million barrels per day [3] - China's petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures and controlling new refining capacity [4] - The geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and U.S. tariffs, is expected to impact the oil market significantly [4]