TMGM外汇平台：日本经济数据表现分化，日元周五承压

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is weakening against major currencies, reaching a near three-week low against the US dollar, driven by uncertainties regarding the Bank of Japan's policy path and mixed economic data [1][4]. Currency Performance - The yen is trading at 183.38 against the euro, up from 182.91; 211.39 against the pound, up from 210.83; and 196.89 against the Swiss franc, up from 196.35. It has also declined against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, trading at 105.40 and 90.39 respectively [3]. - The yen fell from 156.88 to 157.44 against the US dollar and from 113.16 to 113.53 against the Canadian dollar. Potential technical support levels are observed at 184.00 for euro/yen, 212.00 for pound/yen, 199.00 for Swiss franc/yen, 106.00 for Australian dollar/yen, 91.00 for New Zealand dollar/yen, 158.00 for dollar/yen, and 115.00 for Canadian dollar/yen [3]. Economic Data Insights - November household average spending in Japan increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 314,242 yen, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a 1.0% decline, with a month-on-month increase of 6.2% against a forecast of 2.7% [3]. - Conversely, the average monthly income decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 519,304 yen, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending amid rising expenditures [3]. - The Cabinet Office reported that the leading economic index rose to 110.5 in November, the highest since May 2024, indicating potential future economic activity improvement. However, the coincident index slightly declined from 115.9 to 115.2, suggesting short-term economic momentum remains unstable [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Asian stock markets are mostly rising as investors await the US employment report to assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction. There is a prevailing expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates at least twice by 2026, which supports the US dollar and puts pressure on the yen [4]. - The $200 billion mortgage bond purchase program initiated by the US is influencing market liquidity and interest rate expectations, indirectly affecting currency markets [4]. - The core driver of the yen's movement remains the Bank of Japan's policy decisions, with significant market uncertainty regarding potential interest rate adjustments and ongoing concerns about Japan's fiscal health [4].