ATFX：非农夜黄金陷多空博弈，剑指新高还是威胁4400美元？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy actions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts in 2025 [1][4]. - The market anticipates an increase of 55,000 jobs in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [1]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 0.3% from the previous 0.1%, indicating a potential structural tightening in the labor market as companies increase wages to retain core employees [1]. Group 2 - There is a risk of data noise, particularly concerning revisions to the previous two months' data, which could alter the overall employment trend perception [3]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials post-data release will significantly influence market interpretations of policy direction, especially regarding inflation concerns [4]. - HSBC forecasts that geopolitical risks and rising debt could push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, while adjusting the average price forecast for 2026 from $4,600 to $4,587 per ounce due to anticipated price corrections later this year [4]. Group 3 - A significantly stronger-than-expected report could delay expectations for the first interest rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices, particularly around the $4,400 support level [4]. - If the data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, it may not disrupt the rate cut outlook or trigger recession fears, allowing gold to consolidate within its current high range [4]. - A significantly weaker-than-expected report could elevate rate cut expectations and increase safe-haven demand, potentially driving gold prices higher [5].