开年坐“过山车”：指数调整引白银急跌 机构多空博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce before a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment. Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall bullish trend for silver remains intact, supported by global market instability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, had an asset size nearing $109 billion as of October 2025. The annual weight adjustment period for 2026 is from January 8 to 14, with silver's weight in the index being reduced from 9% to just below 4% [2]. - Citigroup estimates that the sell-off for both gold and silver will amount to approximately $7 billion, with silver's asset management scale being reduced from $12.9 billion to a target of $6 billion [2]. - Morgan Stanley has quantified the sell-off pressure on silver, indicating it will face more significant selling pressure in 2026 compared to 2025, while gold's sell-off is expected to account for about 3% of its total open interest in the futures market [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Technical Adjustments - January is traditionally a month of intense market dynamics for gold investors, with an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty trading days of the new year. However, the large-scale technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this seasonal trend [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for various precious metal futures, including silver, for the third time in a month, indicating increased market volatility and potential profit-taking [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented multiple risk control measures for silver futures, including adjustments to margin ratios and trading limits, aimed at curbing speculative trading and promoting rational investment [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some institutions are positioning themselves to short silver, anticipating significant sell-off pressure due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's reweighting. Analysts from TD Securities have established short positions in silver futures, expecting prices to drop significantly in the coming months [6][7]. - Despite recent price volatility, the overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic for the precious metals sector in 2026, with analysts suggesting that any weakness in silver could present buying opportunities [8]. - The silver market is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may increase demand for silver [8]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market has been facing a significant supply-demand gap, with an average annual shortfall of over 130 million ounces since 2021, leading to a cumulative deficit of nearly 800 million ounces [9]. - The current low inventory levels in major markets such as London, New York, and Shanghai, which have reached a ten-year low, further highlight the supply constraints in the silver market [9]. - The historical gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may have more upside potential compared to gold, with analysts projecting that if the ratio returns to historical lows, silver prices could reach as high as $135 per ounce or even $309 per ounce under extreme conditions [9].