美劳动力市场陷入“寒战”，美联储1月降息预期濒临破灭？

Group 1 - The upcoming labor market report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth in December due to increased import tariffs and cautious hiring related to AI investments, with the unemployment rate projected to drop to 4.5% [1] - Economists estimate that the U.S. economy needs to create between 50,000 to 120,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the growth of the working-age population, but job creation has significantly lagged behind this requirement [2] - The sharp slowdown in job growth last year is attributed to aggressive trade and immigration policies, which reduced both demand and supply for workers, with a notable impact from the government shutdown affecting data collection [3] Group 2 - While the median forecast from economists suggests a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December, some predict a slight increase to 4.7%, which could open the door for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, but officials indicated a pause in further cuts to better assess economic trends, with job growth expected to remain narrow and concentrated in healthcare and social assistance sectors [5]