丑闻缠身、业绩承压、股东减持，海底捞的经营困局与隐忧

Core Insights - The recent negative events have significantly impacted the brand image of Haidilao, leading to a decline in consumer trust and operational challenges [6][9][19] Group 1: Brand Trust Erosion and Operational Costs - The incidents involving public health scandals have eroded the brand premium that Haidilao relies on, while simultaneously increasing hidden operational costs [6][9] - The "urination incident" in March 2025 was a severe brand crisis, resulting in significant financial losses and a damaged reputation [7][9] - Following the "urination incident," Haidilao's stock price dropped, leading to a market value loss of over 4 billion HKD [8] Group 2: Financial Performance Decline - Haidilao's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 20.703 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, with core operating profit down 14.0% [10] - The average table turnover rate fell from 4.0 times per day in 2021 to 3.8 times in the first half of 2025, indicating operational inefficiencies [11] - The number of customers served in the first half of 2025 decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with average spending per customer only increasing by 1.1% [13] Group 3: Shareholder Concerns and Market Sentiment - Institutional shareholders have significantly reduced their holdings, with only 5 funds remaining invested in Haidilao by the third quarter of 2025, down from 25 at the end of 2024 [15][16] - The founding team has also engaged in substantial share sell-offs, raising concerns about the company's future prospects despite claims of confidence in its long-term value [17] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and New Initiatives - Haidilao is actively pursuing a transformation strategy, including the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands, which has already resulted in 14 new brands [17][18] - Revenue from other restaurant operations surged by 227.0% in the first half of 2025, indicating that new business ventures are beginning to contribute to overall revenue [18] - The company maintains a cash reserve of 5.871 billion RMB, providing it with strategic flexibility to navigate current challenges [19]