先不用着急唱衰，重生版"呷哺呷哺"正在路上。 去年的火锅行业里，"以价换量"似乎成了共识。 前有呷哺呷哺小火锅继续降价，后有海底捞、怂火锅等知名火锅品牌相继推出低价产品，将客单价拉回百元以内，连客单价一度飙升到150元的湊湊，也 在去年通过推出小份菜，将客单价拉到120元的水平。 但同样是降价，海底捞和呷哺集团却呈现了不同的结果。 根据海底捞2024年财报显示，海底捞成功将翻台率提升回4.1次/天，营收、净利润实现了两年增长，并创下历史新高；反观呷哺呷哺集团，在2024年亏损 扩大至4.01亿元，达到4年来最高，一度被给予厚望的湊湊成了呷哺呷哺集团最拖后腿的业务，亏损3.5亿元，占总亏损九成。 从业绩上来看，降价版的湊湊和呷哺呷哺显然都没有被消费者买账。和海底捞相比，呷哺集团到底差哪儿了？ 01 降价，没换来量 在火锅行业里，湊湊的客单价曾一骑绝尘。 2022年以前的呷哺集团，乘着消费升级的风，顺利几番涨价，在2022年巅峰时期，客单价一度飙到150元以上。 但近两年的火锅市场并不好过。消费降级的趋势下，降价成了火锅同行们的集体动作，客单价逐年下滑。海底捞将自己的客单价拉回百元以内，主打川渝 的怂火锅也在逐年 ...

海底捞需要寻找新的增长点。3月25日，海底捞公布2024年全年度业绩报告显示，2024年海底捞实现营 业收入427.55亿元，同比上升3.1%；净利润47.00亿元，同比增长4.6%。核心经营利润为62.30亿元，同 比上升18.7%。收入、净利润实现连续两年增长，去年业绩创历史新高，但增速有所放缓。 海底捞拥有足够雄厚的试错资金，即使子品牌不盈利也不太会影响主业。只是，面包生意还是一门好生 意吗？红餐大数据显示，截至2024年12月，烘焙赛道新增门店10.3万家，关店9.5万家，净增只有8000 家。 烘焙赛道永远不缺新玩家。 日前，海底捞被爆进军烘焙界，将于"五一"前在杭州西湖银泰开出名为"SHUA BAKERY"的面包店首 店。目前，该门店正在装修，商场现场围挡上写着"海底捞旗下烘焙品牌"、"全国首店"的字样。 海底捞跨界推出的餐饮子品牌很多，为了鼓励内部创新，去年8月份曾专门推出了"红石榴计划"。至今 内部孵化了包括焰请烤肉铺子、火焰官BarBecue、小嗨爱炸、小嗨火锅、苗师兄鱼虾锅等在内的11个餐 饮品牌。 北京一家泸溪河门店员工向Tech星球表示，周末生意好的时候，一天能卖600盒。一盒装有6个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is facing growth pressures, with various brands experiencing mixed performance in revenue and profitability [1][9]. Company Performance - In 2024, Haidilao reported revenue of 427.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 47.08 billion RMB, up 4.7% [3][11]. - Despite overall growth, Haidilao's revenue in the second half of 2024 declined by 5.8% to 212.64 billion RMB, while net profit increased by 19.3% to 26.7 billion RMB [4][11]. - As of the end of 2024, Haidilao operated 1,368 restaurants, a slight decrease from 1,374 in 2023 [5]. Market Trends - The overall dining market is becoming increasingly challenging, with a notable decline in average customer spending. In 2024, Haidilao's average customer spending was 95.7 RMB, down from 97.3 RMB in 2023 [8][10]. - The average order value for competitors like Domino's China also fell by 5.4% to 82.1 RMB [10]. Profitability Metrics - Haidilao achieved a net profit margin of 11.0% in 2024, marking the highest since its listing, with a core operating profit margin increasing by 14.6% [12]. - The gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Operational Strategies - Haidilao is focusing on supply chain advantages and cost control, with a commitment to further enhance its procurement mechanisms [13][15]. - The company reported an increase in table turnover rate to 4.1 times per day, reflecting improved operational efficiency [16]. Expansion Strategy - Haidilao is adopting a cautious approach to expansion, emphasizing quality over quantity in new store openings. In 2024, it opened 59 new self-operated stores while closing 70 underperforming ones [20][21]. - The company plans to continue focusing on self-operated stores as its core operational model while cautiously exploring franchise opportunities [21][22]. New Brand Initiatives - Haidilao has launched the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new brands, with 11 projects currently in operation, including various dining concepts [23]. - The company aims to foster innovation and create a multi-brand ecosystem without prioritizing rapid expansion of new brand outlets [23][24].

01 海底捞变"小"了，增设小火锅、小份菜 最近，很多网友爆料，部分海底捞门店出了小锅和小份菜。 在锅底选择上，除了传统的单锅、拼锅、四宫格，增设了小锅的选项，目前设置有8款特色锅底，价格区间在16~22元不等，比如真香锅18元、海鲜粥锅 底22元、经典麻辣火锅19元。 一个人也能吃"满汉全席" 值得注意的是，就餐同样可以积累捞币，成长值，相关等级权益可以享受；小份菜只有工作日的9点~17点时间段有；目前是部分门店有，有的在改造， 有的试行，具体还是以门店通知为准 。 锅底和菜品都变"小"了 有体验过的网友表示：也是在海底捞吃上满汉全席了，kuku点完8个菜用完69折才50多，一个人吃超级爽，我会经常去...... 在菜品上，这里需要注意，小份菜不同于半份菜，在价格和份量上是真的"小"，荤菜35款，素菜18款，小吃3款，有小酥肉、炸牛奶、注心火锅油条，官 方表示还在持续更新中。 其实，早在1月份，福建海底捞小红书账号就透露试点推广小锅、小份菜：菜品丰富、价格亲民、花同样的钱，收获双倍快乐，后来陆陆续续更多门店试 点，从目前的顾客反馈来看，无一例外都是好评。 海底捞部分区域门店在小红书上也官宣："小份菜、整份爱 ...

昨晚朋友圈刷到黄铁鹰教授的一篇文章，突然想起，应该写写海底捞。 黄教授写过一本书，《海底捞，你学不会》。 三个月后，我在上海参加第七届梅花网传播业大展，和陶氏化学、飞利浦照明、液化空气等业者同台交流。 主持人王丽丽老师问我一个问题：你怎么看待海底捞劲松店事件？ 我说，尽管……但是海底捞依旧是中国最优秀的餐饮企业，没有之一。台下2000多人憋不住，一阵哄笑。 我接着说，这次事件之后，海底捞采取声明中的一系列措施和行动，会整体性提升行业对食品安全的重视和投入。全行业的底线大幅度地提升。这是头部 企业的危机，也是行业提升的契机和转机。 我在随后的很多文章中，也都一致性地表达了赞赏。（参见： 开除员工+闭店：海底捞、胖东来为什么不这么做？） 该书首版于2011年3月，至今销量突破百万册。成为中小企业内训的热门教材。书中案例最初以《海底捞的管理智慧》为题，发表于《哈佛商业评论》中 文版（2009年）。这也是被中国商学院广泛采用的经典教学案例。 这也是一本经典的企业品牌传播商业著作。书中的"双手改变命运""师徒制""顾客体验的极致追求""员工驱动的服务文化"和"把员工当人看待"的核心理 念，逐渐构建出一套品牌叙事结构。 ...

值得一提的是，董事会将在海底捞即将举行的股东周年大会上建议派发截至2024年12月31日止年度末期现金股息每股0.507港元。 在门店扩张方面，海底捞保持相对稳健的拓张速度，同时继续调整优化门店。截至2024年底，海底捞品牌共经营1368家餐厅，其中自营餐厅中国大陆地区 1332家，港澳台地区共23家，加盟餐厅共13家。 文｜筷玩思维 赵娜 近日，海底捞国际控股有限公司(以下简称"海底捞"，股票代码：6862.HK)公布了截至2024年12月31日的年度业绩报告。 数据显示，2024年海底捞实现营业收入427.55亿元，同比上升3.1%；净利润47亿元，同比增长4.6%。核心经营利润为62.3亿元，同比上升18.7%。海底捞 的收入、净利润实现连续两年增长，这份业绩也和当下很多餐企普遍存在的"增收不增利"窘境形成强烈对比。 海底捞在财报中表示，2024年，中国经济运行总体稳中有进。各地政府出台了多项刺激消费的政策，积极促进餐饮消费。餐饮业同行亦积极创新、丰富餐 饮业态，茶饮、炒菜等类别蓬勃发展、增长迅速，为消费者提供更丰富多元的选择，推动餐饮业的整体复苏和高质量发展。 2024年，海底捞继续坚持"一手抓顾客， ...

Summary of Haidilao International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International - **Industry**: Restaurants - **Market Cap**: HK$98.2 billion / US$12.6 billion - **Shares Outstanding**: 5,574 million - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since September 2018 Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Revenue**: Rmb42.8 billion, up 3% YoY - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb4,708 million, up 5% YoY - **H2 2024 Revenue**: Rmb21.3 billion, down 6% YoY - **H2 2024 Net Profit**: Rmb2,670 million, down 19% YoY - **H2 2024 Net Margin**: 12.5%, highest since 2018 - **Dividend Payout Ratio**: 95% in 2024 Performance Analysis - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: 63.2% in H224, up 4.2 percentage points YoY - **SG&A Ratio**: 48.4%, 1.6 percentage points above expectations due to higher labor and rental costs - **Average Table Turn**: Improved to 4.1x per day in 2024, down from 4.3x in H2 2023 - **Average Spending per Customer**: Rmb97.5 in 2024, slightly down from Rmb99.1 in 2023 Store Network and Strategy - **New Openings**: 62 units opened (59 self-operated, 3 franchised) and 70 units closed in 2024 - **Franchise Strategy**: 70% of franchise applications from tier-3 and below cities - **Multi-brand Strategy**: Operates 74 stores under 11 small brands, with over 40 Yanqing Barbeque restaurants averaging Rmb0.8 million sales per store per month Future Outlook - **Store Opening Guidance**: Management maintains guidance to open a mid-single-digit percentage of new Haidilao stores in 2025, with contracts signed for 41 new stores as of February 2025 - **Price Target**: Raised to HK$20.66 from HK$19.35, with a "Buy" rating Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Deteriorating macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending - Rising commodity and labor costs - Food safety incidents - **Downside Risks**: - Cannibalization among restaurants due to aggressive expansion - Competition from local hotpot restaurants and supermarkets - Challenges in adapting to delivery and takeaway services Valuation Metrics - **P/BV (12/25E)**: 8.0x - **Forecast Stock Return**: 22.8% - **Forecast Dividend Yield**: 5.6% Conclusion Haidilao International shows a mixed performance with a solid revenue increase but challenges in net profit and store openings. The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy and expanding its franchise network while managing costs and risks associated with the restaurant industry. The raised price target reflects a positive outlook despite the challenges ahead.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan in 2024, exceeding expectations, with total revenue of 42.8 billion yuan (yoy +3%) and core operating profit of 6.2 billion yuan (yoy +19%) [1][3] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024, which is the highest since its listing, providing attractive shareholder returns with a current annualized dividend yield of about 5% [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a focus on enhancing customer spending and improving table turnover rates, which are projected to reach 4.1 in 2024, up from 3.8 in 2023 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth [1][11] - The core operating profit margin improved by 2 percentage points, with gross margin increasing by approximately 3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs [2] Growth Potential - The company is expected to open new stores at a moderate single-digit growth rate in 2025, supported by a high table turnover rate and the introduction of the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the development of new restaurant brands [1][3] - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to foster the growth of new dining brands, which has already resulted in 74 new stores by the end of 2024, enhancing long-term growth potential [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.2 billion yuan, 5.9 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10% [3][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential valuation premium due to the company's leading position in the industry [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Haidilao is launching the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate independent brands internally, aiming to address market saturation and consumer segmentation challenges while fostering employee entrepreneurship [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - By the end of 2024, Haidilao's other restaurant revenues reached 483 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [2]. - The company has already established 11 sub-brands, including "Yanjing BBQ," "Fire Flame Official," and "Little Hi Hot Pot," with a total of 74 stores [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan" encourages employees to manage multiple stores, allowing store managers to oversee both the main brand and incubated brands, thus promoting talent sharing [2][3]. - The plan symbolizes internal innovation and entrepreneurship, with a focus on project replicability and alignment with economic trends [3][5]. Group 3: Internal Structure and Evaluation - The internal "Entrepreneurship Committee" acts similarly to a venture capital entity, evaluating new projects based on their replicability, market trends, and integration of automation and digital operations [8][9]. - Projects may be voluntarily shut down by founders or based on data assessments by the company, with a structured review mechanism in place [9]. Group 4: Employee Engagement and Incentives - The incentive mechanism for the entrepreneurial teams includes equity incentives, profit sharing, and salary guarantees, aligning the interests of founders with the company's performance [9]. - Employees are excited about the potential for career advancement, seeing opportunities to manage new brands beyond just Haidilao [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved operating revenue and net profit of 42.755 billion and 4.708 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 3.14% and 4.65% respectively [7] - The increase in revenue was driven by improved table turnover rates, with the average daily turnover rate rising to 4.10 times per day [7] - The company has implemented a "Red Pomegranate" plan, resulting in the establishment of 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new outlets, contributing to a 39.6% increase in other restaurant operating income [7] - Cost optimization has led to a core net profit margin increase of 1.91 percentage points to 14.57% in 2024, with significant reductions in the proportion of raw materials and other costs [7] - The company expects continued profit improvement through enhanced supply chain and cost control capabilities [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 42.755 billion RMB, with a net profit of 4.708 billion RMB, and an EPS of 0.84 RMB [1][8] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.259 billion, 5.639 billion, and 6.167 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.01, and 1.11 RMB [1][8] - The P/E ratios for the years 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 16.44x, 15.33x, and 14.02x respectively [1][8]