Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-09 10:41Core Viewpoint - HSBC predicts that gold prices may surpass $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, driven by a combination of geopolitical risks and deteriorating fiscal conditions [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - HSBC's report highlights that the rising fiscal deficits in the Western world, particularly the projected $2.05 trillion federal deficit in the U.S. for the 2026 fiscal year, are becoming a hidden driver for gold price increases [2] - The increasing fiscal deficits are eroding the credibility of fiat currencies, thereby amplifying the appeal of gold as a non-debt asset [2] - Deutsche Bank notes a fundamental shift in market structure, where the pricing power of gold is moving from price-sensitive consumers to less price-sensitive official buyers, such as central banks [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are currently experiencing "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out), which is driving short-term volatility in the gold market [4] - The report warns that if anticipated interest rate cuts do not materialize, the rebound in gold prices may face suppression and potential corrections [4] - The gold market in 2026 is expected to exhibit characteristics of "high volatility and high prices," reflecting a broader distrust in the existing credit system [4]