Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 10:56Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with the decline in demand and sales affecting even major brands, signaling the end of a decade-long prosperity [1][10][22]. Group 1: Company-Specific Insights - Kuozi Jiao announced an expected net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 50%-60% [1]. - The company is facing challenges primarily due to a significant drop in high-end product sales, indicating a shift in consumer behavior from premium purchases to more rational spending [5][12]. - Kuozi Jiao's management and sales expenses are not decreasing at the same rate as revenue, leading to financial strain as promotional efforts are needed to maintain market presence [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The white liquor sector is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a state that reflects actual consumer purchasing power, with a notable retreat from the previously relied-upon high-end premium pricing strategy [3][5]. - The industry is witnessing a fragmentation where regional brands are struggling, while national brands are also experiencing slowed growth, necessitating strategic adjustments [11][12]. - The overall market dynamics indicate that the focus is shifting from rapid growth to sustainability, with companies needing to maintain brand integrity and operational stability in a low-growth environment [22][23].