《求是》刊文：改善和稳定房地产市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market to stabilize it and support the overall economy, especially in light of recent significant changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a shift from a housing shortage to a balance in total supply, but structural supply issues remain, particularly in affordable housing [4][6]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, with projections to increase to around 41 square meters by the end of 2024, indicating a significant improvement in living conditions [3]. - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP is projected to be 13% in 2024, directly supporting over 70 million jobs, highlighting its critical role in the economy [5]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Future Directions - The Central Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a combination of policies aimed at risk prevention and promoting transformation [7]. - Policies such as "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" are being implemented to enhance housing supply and improve living conditions, with a focus on quality and safety in housing [7][8]. - The government is encouraging a shift from high-leverage real estate development models to more sustainable practices, emphasizing the need for a transition to a new development model that integrates product, service, and operation [4][9]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - Despite recent declines in investment, sectors like housing services and second-hand transactions continue to grow, indicating substantial market potential [5][6]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, with significant housing demand from new urban residents, suggesting ongoing opportunities for the real estate market [6]. - The article notes that the traditional real estate development model is reaching its limits, necessitating a transformation to meet evolving consumer demands for quality housing [4][5].