开年大考！贵金属百亿美元抛压来袭，金银恐遭“调仓劫”

Group 1 - A significant sell-off of precious metals worth over $10 billion is testing the market for 2026, putting pressure on the previously soaring prices of gold and silver [1] - According to JPMorgan's estimates, commodity index-tracking funds are expected to sell approximately $6.1 billion of silver and $5.6 billion of gold during the annual rebalancing period from January 8 to 15 [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) requires annual adjustments to maintain target allocation ratios, leading to necessary buying or selling by funds [1] Group 2 - Gregory Shearer from JPMorgan indicates that silver will face the largest scale of sell-off, estimated to be about 10% of the total value of all open derivative contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [2] - Cocoa has been reintroduced into the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with funds needing to buy approximately 30% of the open contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) [2] - Concerns exist in the cocoa market regarding potential short covering due to the rebalancing, especially after cocoa prices fell nearly 50% in 2025 following a supply shortage from West Africa [2]