2025年新能源车零售份额过半，机构预计今年增长10%

Core Insights - The automotive market in 2025 experienced positive growth, with total retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 23.744 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 12.809 million units, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 17.6%, with a penetration rate of 53.9% [1] - The market trend for 2025 is characterized by a "U-shaped" pattern, with an initial low, a mid-high, and a subsequent low, leading to a revised growth forecast for 2026 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, automotive retail sales were 2.261 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14% [2] - The decline in December sales was attributed to the expiration of the NEV purchase tax exemption and budget constraints on vehicle trade-in policies, which dampened consumer purchasing activity [2] - Despite the overall decline, NEV sales in December reached a record high of 1.337 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [2] Group 2: Future Projections - The outlook for NEV retail growth in 2026 is optimistic, with an expected growth rate of around 10% [3] - The growth of A00-class electric vehicles has shown signs of slowing down, which may impact overall retail growth in the domestic market [3] - The 2026 market is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory, with commercial vehicle growth expected to outperform passenger vehicles due to unchanged subsidy policies for commercial vehicle updates [3]