委内瑞拉原油“断供”之后：中国炼厂紧急转向，加拿大成赢家

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. maritime security actions against Venezuela have effectively led to a maritime blockade by the end of 2025, disrupting the supply of approximately 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude oil that was previously directed to Chinese refineries [1] Group 1: Impact on Chinese Refiners - The interruption of Venezuelan oil supply has directly impacted Chinese independent refiners, known as "teapot" refineries, which have relied heavily on discounted Venezuelan crude [1] - A $2 billion oil import agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela is currently being executed, redirecting millions of barrels of oil that were originally intended for the Asian market to the U.S. [1] Group 2: Search for Alternatives - In response to the sudden supply disruption, Chinese refiners quickly initiated a search for alternative oil sources, focusing on Canadian heavy oil as a close substitute [3] - The transition to Canadian crude coincides with the completion of the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline in May 2024, which will enhance Alberta's capacity to transport oil to the Pacific coast by 890,000 barrels per day [3] Group 3: Economic Logic and Strategic Adjustments - Despite higher prices for Canadian crude compared to discounted Venezuelan oil, the stability and geopolitical neutrality of Canadian supply are seen as valuable in the current context [3] - The Canadian government views this shift as a historical opportunity to diversify its energy exports, especially given its previous reliance on the U.S. market for over 95% of its crude exports [3][7] Group 4: Global Energy Trade Dynamics - The disruption of Venezuelan oil supply is part of a broader adjustment in the global energy trade landscape, with Chinese refiners demonstrating agility in adapting to supply changes [4][8] - The rapid adaptation of Chinese refiners highlights their role as "agile buyers" in the global energy market, minimizing the impact of single events on overall energy security [8] Group 5: Long-term Strategic Value - Analysts believe that establishing a stable and diversified supply system, even at a premium, holds long-term strategic value for major importing countries like China [6] - The ongoing developments in energy trade between Canada and China are seen as a significant step towards Canada achieving its vision of becoming an "energy superpower" while reducing dependence on the U.S. market [9]