债市开年持续调整 公募基金销售新规如何影响后市走势？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been under pressure since 2026, with the recent implementation of new regulations affecting market sentiment and presenting potential investment opportunities for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Pressure Factors - The bond market is facing pressure due to lower-than-expected bond purchases by the central bank and a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, leading to a correction in expectations for monetary easing [1][2]. - The "spring market" has increased risk appetite, with a strong stock market performance causing a "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, contributing to the bond market's adjustment [1]. - Additional factors include concentrated government bond issuance, rising inflation expectations, and key levels being breached in ultra-long bonds [1]. Group 2: Impact of New Regulations - The new regulations have alleviated concerns regarding short-term redemption pressures on bond funds, which is expected to help restore market sentiment [2][3]. - The regulations support long-term holding, enhancing the stability of bond fund liabilities, and may gradually repair the widening credit spreads seen in medium to long-term credit bonds [2][3]. - There is a potential shift in institutional investor funds towards money market funds or bond ETFs due to increased thresholds for short-term bond funds, which could lead to an expansion of bond ETFs [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests stable growth with low inflation, and monetary policy will remain supportive but cautious regarding rate cuts, leading to a weak and fluctuating bond yield environment [4][5]. - The overall strategy for government bonds will focus on defensive positioning, with opportunities to increase allocations during periods of easing monetary expectations and to reduce during inflationary pressures [4]. - Credit spreads are expected to remain low, with opportunities to explore long-end credit bonds after adjustments, and convertible bonds may present structural opportunities as supply becomes limited [4][5].