Economic Overview - Thailand is experiencing prolonged economic stagnation, with the central bank projecting a GDP growth rate of only 1.5% by 2026 due to weak exports, high debt, and a slowdown in tourism [1][2] - Since 2019, Thailand's economy has been in a "deceleration" mode, significantly lagging behind other major ASEAN economies [1][2] - The OECD has noted that Thailand's economic recovery post-pandemic remains weak compared to other ASEAN countries [1] Industrial Strategy - Thailand is actively promoting the "Industry 4.0" strategy, focusing on emerging sectors such as renewable energy and the digital economy to regain growth momentum [1] - Chinese investments in Thailand are increasing, with a reported 49% year-on-year growth in Chinese investments reaching 22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, particularly in electronics, automotive, and food sectors [1][12] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector, which contributes 20%-25% to Thailand's economy, is still far from recovery, with a projected decline in foreign tourist arrivals to 32.9 million in 2025, down 7.23% year-on-year [3][4] - The tourism ministry anticipates a slight increase to 36.7 million tourists in 2026, but this is still below pre-pandemic levels of 40 million [3] Export Challenges - Thailand's export sector, crucial for its economy, is facing challenges with a projected growth rate of 11.6% to 12.1% for 2025, but risks a 1.2% contraction in 2026 due to high base effects and global demand slowdown [4][5] - The strong Thai baht, which appreciated over 10% against the US dollar, is negatively impacting export competitiveness [6] Structural Issues - Thailand is grappling with structural challenges such as an aging population, outdated industrial structures, and a shortage of skilled labor, which are hindering potential growth rates [8][9] - The proportion of the population aged 65 and older is expected to reach 15.36% by 2024, with predictions of becoming the first developing country in Asia to enter a super-aged society by 2029 [8] Government Initiatives - The Thai government has introduced various economic stimulus measures, including a 44 billion baht consumption stimulus plan aimed at benefiting around 20 million citizens [10][11] - Efforts to attract foreign investment include tax incentives for emerging industries and initiatives to open new markets for Thai agricultural products [11] Bilateral Cooperation - China remains Thailand's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $76.1 billion in the first half of 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [11][12] - The deepening political trust between Thailand and China is expected to enhance cooperation across trade, culture, and infrastructure [13]
连续六年经济增长低迷，泰国冀望中国重寻增长动能？
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-09 13:36