美国12月非农增5万人不及预期，失业率降至4.4%，年度增幅创2020年以来新低

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment growth in December fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, leading to the weakest annual employment growth since the pandemic began [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October's non-farm employment was revised from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 76,000 jobs for November and December combined [3]. - For the entire year, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since the sharp decline of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 due to the pandemic [3]. - The three-month moving average of employment data has entered negative territory, indicating a significant decline in labor market momentum [1][4]. Unemployment Rate Insights - Despite the disappointing employment data, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, which was better than the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [9]. - The decline in the unemployment rate is partly attributed to a shrinking labor force participation rate, suggesting that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market entirely [3]. Sector-Specific Employment Trends - Private sector employment growth remains weak, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline. The healthcare sector added 21,000 jobs, although this is below the average monthly increase of 34,000 jobs seen last year [5]. - Analysts predict that in 2025, private sector employers will add an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest level of growth since 2003 without an economic recession [5]. Wage Growth Analysis - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with the previous value revised to 0.2%. Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.8%, outpacing inflation by approximately 1 percentage point [7]. Interest Rate Expectations - The report has dispelled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, as the decline in the unemployment rate is seen as a key factor supporting the Fed's patience [8]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in January is currently viewed as zero, despite the weak employment data and downward revisions [2][8].