这是市场最想看到的非农? 失业率下行+就业略低预期 强化美国经济“软着陆”叙事

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll data indicates a slight recovery in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that it is not deteriorating as rapidly as some economists had predicted, supporting the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, slightly below the expected increase of 60,000, following significant downward revisions in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from a revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5%, reflecting a notable decrease in direct unemployment [1][3] - The employment growth and declining unemployment rate create a favorable environment for the stock market and support expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that the U.S. economy will gradually return to a path of moderate growth by 2026, with a more optimistic outlook for economic resilience [3][9] - The December employment data is seen as a positive indicator for the U.S. economy, reinforcing the "soft landing" narrative without causing negative disruptions to market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The December job growth was primarily driven by the leisure and hospitality sectors, as well as healthcare, which have been significant contributors to non-farm employment in the past year [7] - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated a significant drop in announced layoffs, with only 35,553 job cuts in December, the lowest level since July 2024, alongside plans to add approximately 10,500 new jobs [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a stronger-than-expected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.6% for 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2%, driven by favorable fiscal and monetary conditions [9][10] - The combination of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and a robust AI investment cycle is expected to drive strong corporate earnings growth and overall economic performance in 2026 [10]