JPM Q4 Earnings on Deck: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock Ahead of Results?

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan is expected to report strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings, with significant attention on its performance as a bellwether for the financial sector [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - JPMorgan's nine-month performance was driven by strong investment banking and trading, with a projected revenue of $45.71 billion for Q4, indicating a 6.9% year-over-year rise [2] - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has increased to $5.01, reflecting a 4.2% rise from the previous year [3] - The company has a history of exceeding earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 11.01% over the last four quarters [5] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to reach nearly $25 billion in Q4, with a full-year estimate of approximately $95.8 billion, suggesting a 6.8% year-over-year increase [8] - Investment Banking (IB) revenues are projected to rise 4.2% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate of $2.71 billion [11] - Markets revenues are anticipated to grow at a low-teens percentage rate year-over-year, with equity markets revenues expected to jump 38.2% [13] Group 3: Expenses and Asset Quality - Operating expenses are projected to increase by 7.2% year-over-year to $24.4 billion due to expansion efforts and technology investments [16] - The provision for credit losses is estimated at $1.66 billion, down 36.7% year-over-year, excluding provisions related to the Apple Card acquisition [18] - Non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to rise by 19.4% year-over-year, indicating potential asset quality pressures [18] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - JPMorgan's shares have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and peers like Citigroup and Bank of America, with a forward P/E of 15.67X, above the industry average [21][24] - The company benefits from its scale and diversified operations, with ongoing initiatives expected to drive growth despite elevated expenses [28] - Investors are advised to monitor management's guidance on NII and IB outlook during the upcoming earnings call [29]