2025年乘用车零售2374.4万辆，新能源占比约54%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to reach 23.744 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - Among these, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to total 12.809 million units in 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, which accounts for 53.9% of the total passenger vehicle retail sales [1] - The market trend for passenger vehicles in 2025 is described as a "U-shaped" pattern, with a low start, a high middle, and a low end, driven by sufficient demand for vehicle replacement from 2024 to 2025 [1] Group 2 - In 2026, the policy encouraging subsidies for commercial vehicle updates will remain unchanged, while the scrapping and updating of passenger vehicles is expected to decrease by 20% based on the 2025 structure, with the maximum decrease for trade-ins estimated at 30% [1] - The growth effect for commercial vehicles in 2026 is anticipated to be better than that for passenger vehicles, with the overall vehicle market sales in 2026 expected to remain flat compared to the domestic retail volume in 2025 [1]