2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-09 15:02Core Viewpoint - The global tanker market, including A-share oil shipping companies, has experienced a significant surge due to geopolitical tensions, with notable price increases in both A-shares and U.S. stocks of major tanker companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, A-share VLCC companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船) and COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) saw stock increases of 9.47% and 8.82% respectively, while U.S. companies like DHT Holdings and Frontline experienced gains of 14.4% and 18.7% [1]. - The BDTI index, which tracks global oil tanker rates, fell by 8.49% on January 2 but rebounded by 3.95% on January 8, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2025 [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The "shadow fleet," which consists of tankers involved in sanctioned oil transport, is facing increasing restrictions, leading to a tightening of compliant tanker supply. As of January 7, four vessels from this fleet have been seized by U.S. authorities [1][3]. - According to SYY data, the global VLCC fleet is projected to see a -1.2% growth rate, with only three new VLCCs expected to be delivered in 2025, indicating a tight supply situation [7]. Group 3: Company Strategies and Outlook - China Merchants Energy Shipping announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of 6 to 6.6 billion yuan for 2025, driven by a significant increase in tanker business profits [2][6]. - COSCO Shipping Energy plans to expand its fleet with a capital expenditure plan that includes the construction of 24 new tankers, reflecting confidence in the future of the oil shipping market [2][6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical landscape has intensified, with the U.S. increasing its actions against the "shadow fleet," which has implications for the availability of compliant tankers for oil transport [4][8]. - The ongoing sanctions and the need for longer shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions are expected to increase the demand for tanker services, particularly for VLCCs [8].