野村东方国际证券：2026年A股将出现三大分化趋势

Group 1 - The Chinese market experienced a strong start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark for the first time in a decade, and the total trading volume reaching 3.12 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous trading day [2] - Nomura Oriental International Securities predicts three major trends in the A-share market for 2026: industry differentiation, profit and loss differentiation, and internal and external demand differentiation, indicating that the structural differentiation of A-share fundamentals is entering its second half [2][3] - The technology innovation-driven economic transformation, concentration of leading companies, and the pull of external demand are expected to jointly drive the A-share market into a differentiated trend in the second half [3] Group 2 - Nomura has raised its net profit growth forecast for the CSI 300 Index to 7.2% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating that profit will be the main contributor to returns, while valuation contributions are expected to weaken [3][4] - The revenue growth forecast for the CSI 300 Index has been adjusted to 5.3% and 10.6% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting the anticipated improvements in non-financial industry profit margins due to anti-involution policies [4] - The static PE ratio of the CSI 300 Index is currently at one standard deviation above the ten-year average, suggesting that further valuation expansion will require unexpected liquidity injections or significant improvements in fundamentals [4]