美国失业率意外回落动摇短期宽松预期 美债收益率全线走高 交易员仍定价年内两次降息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate's decline in December exceeded market expectations, leading to a drop in U.S. Treasury prices and a rise in yields across various maturities, with the highest increase around 3 basis points [1] - Despite the short-term cooling of rate cut expectations, bond traders maintain a forecast of two rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially occurring around mid-year [1][2] - The December employment data is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing trends in the U.S. labor market, especially following a six-week government shutdown that delayed labor reports [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that future rate cuts will depend on the performance of the labor market in the coming months, with some Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation exceeding policy targets, which may limit the pace of further easing [2] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a cumulative increase of over 6% last year, marking its best annual performance since 2020, primarily driven by expectations of a cooling labor market [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has emerged as another focal point for the bond market, with potential legal rulings on the legitimacy of tariffs that have generated significant revenue for the U.S. government [2][3]