全球“最惨”！日债大溃败恐未完待续：十余年来最猛净供应洪峰将至

Group 1 - The Japanese government bond market is facing significant challenges due to the largest net supply growth in over a decade, with an expected increase of 8% to approximately 65 trillion yen (415 billion USD) in the new fiscal year starting in April [1] - The increase in net supply is driven by the Bank of Japan's reduction in bond purchases, which is projected to decrease by over 25% to about 2.1 trillion yen monthly, leading to a potential reduction in holdings by 46.5 trillion yen in the next fiscal year [2] - Local banks and pension funds have been the primary buyers of bonds since the Bank of Japan began easing control over the yield curve, with net purchases exceeding 30 trillion yen since April 2023, although concerns remain about whether this will be sufficient given the surge in net supply [4] Group 2 - The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to 2.13%, the highest level since 1999, with expectations that it could reach a fair level of 2.2%-2.3% [5] - The rise in yields, particularly for short-term bonds, suggests that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may further adjust its issuance plans, with a slight decrease in medium to long-term bond supply expected while increasing issuance of 2-year and 5-year bonds [6] - The ongoing inflation pressures indicate that the Bank of Japan is likely to continue raising interest rates to achieve a neutral rate, which may lead to a flattening of the yield curve as long-term bond supply decreases [6]