Alcoa Surges 93.5% in 6 Months: Should You Buy the Stock Now?

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) shares have increased by 93.5% over the past six months, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 growth rates of 81.8% and 13.1%, respectively [1] - The stock closed at $61.09, below its 52-week high of $65.01 but significantly above its low of $21.53, indicating strong upward momentum and market confidence [3] - Alcoa's performance is driven by strong demand for aluminum and alumina, higher aluminum prices, and tariffs that benefit domestic producers [7][9] Stock Performance - Alcoa's stock has shown solid performance, trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - The company has outperformed peers such as Constellium SE (CSTM) and Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI), which gained 40.1% and 14.7%, respectively, in the same period [1] Demand Drivers - The demand for aluminum has surged due to the rise in electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and increased air travel, prompting aircraft manufacturers to increase production [8] - The U.S. administration's decision to raise tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% has further boosted domestic aluminum prices, benefiting Alcoa [9] Segment Performance - Alcoa's Aluminum segment reported a 1% increase in production to 579,000 metric tons in Q3 2025, with expectations of producing 2.3-2.5 million tonnes for the year [10][11] - The Alumina segment also saw a 4% production increase to 2,453 kilometric tons in Q3 2025, with anticipated production of 9.5-9.7 million tonnes for the year [12] Strategic Actions - Alcoa has made strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Alumina Limited, enhancing its position in the bauxite and alumina market [13] - A joint venture with IGNIS EQT aims to improve production capacity at the San Ciprian site, with a restart expected by mid-2026 [14] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Alcoa's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 13.28X, below the industry average of 13.53X, indicating an attractive valuation for investors [15] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have increased by 3.5% to $3.55 per share, while 2026 estimates surged by 51.6% to $4.61 per share [18] Investment Outlook - The strong momentum in Alcoa's segments, strategic growth initiatives, and favorable market conditions position the company for impressive growth [20] - Positive analyst sentiment and attractive valuation suggest it may be a good time for potential investors to consider Alcoa stock [20]