XOM's Integrated Business Model Shields Earnings Amid Lower Oil Prices

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has indicated that its upstream earnings are expected to decline sequentially due to lower liquids prices, with the West Texas Intermediate spot average projected to fall from $65.78 per barrel in Q3 to $59.31 per barrel in Q4 [1][8] Group 1: Earnings Impact - The integrated nature of XOM allows it to benefit from lower crude prices through its refining operations, which reduces feedstock costs and enhances refining gains, thereby supporting downstream profitability [2][3] - XOM forecasts that changes in industry margins will positively impact its Energy Products segment by $300-$700 million and its Specialty Products segment by up to $200 million on a sequential basis [2][8] Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - XOM's diversified business model helps stabilize earnings during volatile commodity price environments, partially offsetting the negative effects on upstream earnings [3] - Over the past year, XOM's shares have increased by 15.4%, outperforming the industry composite stocks, which rose by 9.2% [5] - XOM currently trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.97X, which is above the industry average of 4.91X [7] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM's 2025 earnings has seen upward revisions in the past 30 days, indicating positive market sentiment [9] - Current estimates for Q4 2025 earnings stand at $1.66 per share, with slight increases noted over the past month [10]