思博瑞资管：全球经济将持续增长 未来一年挑战与机遇并存

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite challenges in the coming year, opportunities are expected, with a strong belief in continued global economic growth [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2% to 3% due to the effects of interest rate cuts by 2026, supported by low mortgage rates and stable real income [1] - Outside the U.S., economic growth is expected to slightly improve due to a stable job market and improved tariff conditions, with Germany and China implementing significant development plans and stimulus measures [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation is expected to stabilize by 2026, but reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target may take longer due to the need for service prices and wages to weaken further [2] - The inflation situation in most countries outside the U.S. has reached targets, allowing central banks to implement more stimulus measures, with Eurozone inflation expected to drop below 2% [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be data-driven, with potential fewer rate cuts in 2026 due to strong economic growth, necessitating a careful balance between supporting employment and stabilizing prices [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high in 2026, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-China strategic competition impacting global trade flows [3] - The U.S. has relied more on fiscal policy than monetary policy for economic support since the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to long-term inflation pressures and increased financing difficulties for the government [3] - The independence of central banks is crucial, as any signals weakening inflation targets in pursuit of higher growth could heighten investor uncertainty and increase risk premiums [3]