【UNFX财经事件】非农数据与政策裁决交织 黄金回落中的支撑因素依旧强劲

Core Viewpoint - Global market risk sentiment remains cautious amid key macro events, with gold prices experiencing a pullback due to profit-taking and a lack of strong catalysts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell to around $4,415, reflecting a position adjustment ahead of the non-farm payroll report rather than a fundamental change [1]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in Latin America, the Middle East, and the Russia-Ukraine situation, provide some support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which has kept the dollar from forming a sustained rebound, thereby alleviating some downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data shows divergence, with ADP private sector employment growth being moderate and JOLTS job openings falling to a one-year low, indicating a cooling labor demand [2]. - The ISM services data showed a rebound, contributing to mixed economic signals, making the upcoming non-farm payroll report a critical event for adjusting market expectations [2][3]. - The upcoming ruling on the Trump tariff case is expected to impose some limitations on presidential tariff powers but is not anticipated to fundamentally alter the existing trade framework [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is at a convergence of key events, with the non-farm payroll data expected to provide important insights into the Federal Reserve's policy path [3]. - The tariff ruling will introduce new uncertainties into the policy environment, potentially heightening market caution [2][3]. - In the short term, gold may experience a mix of high-level fluctuations and technical corrections, with changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations being core factors influencing precious metal prices [3].