养猪业供需失衡 全产业链布局成关键

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices and losses due to supply-demand imbalances, with a shift towards fine-tuned operations expected in the future [2][6]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The industry is currently facing losses primarily due to high production capacity, with the number of breeding sows remaining elevated at 39.9 million as of October 2025, which is 102.3% of the normal level [4]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.25 yuan/kg as of December 28, 2025, still below the breakeven cost of 14 yuan/kg [2]. Price Trends and Profitability - The average price of live pigs for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be between 13.9 and 14 yuan/kg, with significant price drops observed from August onwards [3]. - By December 26, 2025, the losses for self-breeding and purchased pig farming were reported at -130 yuan/head and -163 yuan/head, respectively [3]. Production Capacity and Adjustments - The number of breeding sows has decreased by approximately 400,000 from a peak of 4.39 million in December 2022, but the current level remains high [4]. - Despite efforts to reduce production capacity, the pace of adjustment has been slow, with major companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology already meeting their annual output targets by November 2025 [5]. Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with some achieving significant reductions in production costs, such as Muyuan Foods at 11.3 yuan/kg and Wens Foodstuffs at 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg [8]. - The industry consensus indicates that relying solely on scale is no longer sufficient for profit growth, leading to a transition towards a micro-profit era [9]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards sustainable development, emphasizing collaboration across the supply chain, including feed production, breeding, and processing [10]. - The involvement of large agricultural groups and cross-industry capital is anticipated to intensify competition and capacity expansion in the short term, while promoting modernization and stability in the long term [10].