2026年全球投资展望报告-贝莱德

Core Insights - The BlackRock 2026 Global Investment Outlook Report highlights a structural transformation in the global investment landscape, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) as a dominant disruptive trend intertwined with geopolitical fragmentation, energy transition, and financial system evolution [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Environment - The report emphasizes the need for investors to abandon neutral positions and adopt proactive investment strategies due to the changing investment environment [1]. - AI-related capital expenditures are projected to reach $5 to $8 trillion globally by 2030, primarily concentrated in the U.S. [1][14]. - The report notes that while current revenue growth expectations for tech companies may not support reasonable return rates, AI could potentially push U.S. economic growth beyond the long-term trend of 2% [1][18]. Group 2: Financial Leverage - The significant upfront investments in AI and the delayed realization of returns are leading companies to increase leverage financing, while high public debt limits government financing capabilities [1][26]. - The private credit market is becoming a crucial financing channel, but this also heightens the fragility of the financial system [1][26]. - The report suggests a tactical underweighting of U.S. long-term treasuries due to rising leverage and financing costs [1][27]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report identifies a concentration of market returns driven by a few core factors, indicating that traditional diversification strategies are becoming ineffective [1][30]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt more segmented and flexible allocation strategies, focusing on private markets and hedge funds for non-systematic return sources [1][31]. - Tactical overweights are recommended for U.S. and Japanese equities, emerging market hard currency bonds, and U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities, while underweighting U.S. long-term treasuries [2][30]. Group 4: Disruptive Trends - AI development faces physical limitations, including energy and computing power constraints, with U.S. data center electricity demand potentially reaching 25% of current total demand by 2030 [2][35]. - The geopolitical landscape is intensifying, with the U.S.-China AI competition becoming a focal point, and Europe planning to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP [2][41][42]. - Infrastructure investment is seen as an opportunity, with significant valuation discounts and essential support for AI development [2][36].