2026年债市：震荡中的机会

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "top-down, bottom-up" oscillation pattern in 2025, with a continuation of differentiation and volatility anticipated in 2026, highlighting certain bonds with relative value [2] - Under a backdrop of moderately loose monetary policy and stable liquidity, medium- to short-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds are expected to provide stable coupon income, serving as core components for portfolio construction and volatility resistance [2] - Super long-term government bonds have become attractive after significant adjustments, with potential for trading rebounds in the short term, despite expected increased volatility in a more positive macro environment [2] Group 2 - Focus on regional and industry-specific credit bond opportunities is emphasized, with structural digging for relative value becoming crucial in a low overall credit spread environment [3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with a two-phase interest rate trend anticipated for 2026: a downward trend in the first quarter followed by an upward trend in the second quarter [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that the government will optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, which may alleviate local government debt risks in 2026 [4] Group 3 - Innovation in financial products such as technology innovation bonds and green bonds is expected to expand, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing financing channels for tech enterprises [4] - The improvement in corporate profitability expectations, particularly in industries like steel and photovoltaics, is likely to alleviate some corporate debt issues and reduce credit risks in related industry bonds [5] - Key developments in the bond market infrastructure are anticipated, including the unification and high-quality development of the domestic bond market and the deepening of the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets [5]