一只“无形之手”推动银价上涨？ | 破译金属新主线

Core Insights - The current silver market surge is fundamentally different from the silver bubble of the 1980s, driven by a complex "invisible hand" rather than a single entity manipulating the market [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context - The 1980s silver bubble was characterized by the Hunt brothers controlling over half of the deliverable silver, leading to a price increase of 492% within six months before a market crash due to regulatory measures [1] - The current market conditions show similarities, such as high speculative interest, increased risk aversion, global monetary easing, and tight physical inventory [2] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current silver price surge is driven by a "triple resonance": long-term structural supply-demand imbalance, declining global silver production, and increasing demand [2] - The global monetary easing cycle and a weakening dollar enhance the attractiveness of precious metals, while fluctuating U.S. tariff policies exacerbate physical inventory shortages [2] Group 3: Market Structure Changes - Unlike the past, the current silver market has a highly dispersed holding structure, making it difficult for a single entity to dominate [2] - The industrial demand for silver has increased significantly, rising from 40% to 65% of total demand, alongside evolving regulatory frameworks in trading exchanges [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the year-end delivery peak and low global inventories, with potential passive selling pressure of around $4 billion in early 2026 from major commodity index rebalancing [2] - In the medium to long term, silver prices are expected to remain anchored to gold, supported by macroeconomic fundamentals, and will benefit from its ties to energy transition and technological advancements, highlighting its growth and inflation-hedging characteristics [2]