AI时代，管理者需要补一补数学思维

Core Viewpoint - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) prompts business leaders to consider outsourcing mathematical tasks to machines, but it is crucial for them to maintain a strong grasp of mathematics as it is the core language of business [1]. Group 1: Importance of Mathematics in Business - Mastery of practical and flexible mathematical skills is essential for managers to solve real-world problems effectively [2]. - The ability to think independently and reason is critical, as over-focusing on irrelevant details can lead to overlooking important aspects in business mathematics [3]. Group 2: Historical Examples of Mathematical Misjudgment - During the late 1990s internet boom, managers fixated on "page views" while neglecting cash flow, leading to the bankruptcy of many internet companies [4]. - In the 2008-2009 financial crisis, analysts relied on complex financial models that failed to predict the collapse of major banks, while outsiders like Michael Burry used basic mathematical analysis to identify the flaws [5]. Group 3: Skills for Effective Mathematical Application - Developing numerical intuition is vital, and using tools that encourage initial estimations can enhance mathematical thinking [6]. - Employing problem-solving frameworks, such as the McKinsey method, can help in constructing and testing hypotheses effectively [7]. - Learning mental calculation techniques can simplify complex problems and improve decision-making [8]. Group 4: Decision-Making and Outcomes - Decision-making and outcomes are interconnected, but making mathematically correct decisions does not guarantee favorable results due to the randomness of real-world scenarios [9][10]. - The use of probability logic and decision trees is essential for making informed decisions, even though luck can sometimes yield better outcomes for some individuals [11]. Group 5: Non-linear Thinking in Decision-Making - Applying linear thinking to non-linear problems can lead to significant errors, especially in capital or resource allocation decisions [12]. - Understanding the Kelly Criterion is crucial for maximizing long-term growth rates by determining optimal bet sizes in uncertain situations [16].