2025年金价狂飙美元贬值 全球资产加速去美元化

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the value of the US dollar and the concurrent rise in gold prices, indicating a structural challenge to the dollar's creditworthiness and a shift towards de-dollarization in global asset allocation [1][2][6][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - In 2025, gold prices reached new historical highs over 50 times, with a cumulative increase of over 60% in London spot gold [2]. - The global central banks are increasing their gold holdings to enhance the diversity and stability of their asset portfolios [2][9]. Group 2: Decline of the US Dollar - The US dollar index fell from around 108 at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 98 by the end of the year, marking a cumulative decline of 9.4%, the worst performance in eight years [4]. - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves decreased from 57.08% in Q2 2025 to 56.92% in Q3 2025, remaining below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters, the lowest level since 1995 [4]. Group 3: Structural Challenges to Dollar Credit - The aggressive tariff policies of the US government and increased intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the sustainability of US government debt, further undermining the dollar's credit foundation [6]. - The frequent weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions has shaken global confidence in the dollar, a trend expected to continue [8]. Group 4: Shift Towards De-dollarization - The trend of de-dollarization is evident as global central banks increase their gold reserves, surpassing US Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [9]. - By mid-2025, the share of US Treasuries in central bank reserves fell below 25%, while gold's share rose above 25%, marking a significant shift in asset allocation [9][11]. - The risk appetite for dollar assets is declining, suggesting a long-term downward trend in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves and an evolution towards a more diversified international monetary system [11].