2026年的第一周，全球风险资产齐涨，投资者“情绪高涨”

Market Overview - The global financial markets have shown strong risk appetite in the first trading week of 2026, with major stock indices reaching historical highs as investors shift from defensive assets to cyclical sectors and high-risk assets [1][5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index surged by 4.6%, indicating an expanding market breadth [1] Asian Market Performance - The A-share market in China witnessed significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark and achieving a remarkable "16 consecutive days of gains," with daily trading volume exceeding 3.15 trillion yuan [2][12] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market performed strongly, driven by geopolitical factors and inflation expectations, with oil prices experiencing the largest single-day increase since October of the previous year, silver rising by 10% over the week, and gold nearing historical highs [3][14][15] Credit Market Activity - The credit market also joined the upward trend, with junk bond spreads narrowing by 10 basis points, stimulating new corporate borrowing [8] - The U.S. government's supportive policies, including new measures for the real estate market, have contributed to the market's rally [8] Investor Sentiment and Trends - Investors are increasingly favoring high-beta assets, with significant capital flowing into riskier segments of the market, as evidenced by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF attracting $10 billion in just a few days [6] - Speculative assets have also seen active trading, with a "Meme stock" ETF soaring nearly 15% and heavily shorted stocks rising by 7%, marking the best start since at least 2008 [6] Economic Indicators - Despite a slight miss in U.S. non-farm payroll data, with only 50,000 jobs added in December against an expectation of 70,000, positive indicators such as service sector expansion and productivity gains have helped maintain investor optimism [11] - The U.S. monetary policy and strong fiscal support are expected to provide a favorable backdrop for economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 and beyond [11] Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have significantly impacted commodity prices, with oil and precious metals experiencing notable increases [14][16] - The volatility in stocks and bonds has decreased amid rising geopolitical tensions [17] Market Caution - Despite the bullish market sentiment, some analysts express caution, suggesting that the current speculative fervor may be unwarranted after a nearly doubling of the S&P 500 index over three years [19] - The upcoming decision on the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also a focal point for market participants [19]