2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-10 02:27Core Viewpoint - The global oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant increase in oil tanker stocks, particularly in the A-share market and U.S. market [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price and Market Performance - International oil prices saw a weekly increase, with U.S. oil futures rising by 3.14% and Brent oil futures by 4.26% [1]. - A-share oil transportation companies experienced remarkable gains, with China Merchants Energy (招商轮船) up 9.47% and COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) up 8.82% as of January 9 [3]. - In the U.S. market, major oil tanker companies like DHT Holdings, Frontline, and CMB.TECH saw stock increases of 14.4%, 18.7%, and 19.85% respectively [3]. Group 2: Company Performance and Projections - China Merchants Energy's stock reached a new high of 10.08 CNY per share, the highest since July 2015, with a market capitalization nearing 80 billion CNY [6]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 6 to 6.6 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% to 29%, driven by a 200% to 230% increase in oil tanker business profits [6]. - COSCO Shipping Energy announced plans to increase capital expenditures, including the construction of new oil tankers, indicating confidence in the oil transportation market [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, involved in transporting Venezuelan oil, is facing increased scrutiny and sanctions, leading to a tightening of compliant tanker supply [8][9]. - The global VLCC fleet is projected to see minimal growth, with only three new deliveries expected in 2025, resulting in a negative growth rate of -1.2% when excluding sanctioned vessels [11]. - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that VLCCs are in high demand, with a projected demand growth of 0.9% against a supply increase of only 0.2% by 2026, indicating a tight market [12].