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Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risk premium has returned to the energy market, with crude oil prices recording the longest weekly gain since June of last year [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Protests in Iran have been ongoing, with the Iranian National Security Council accusing the U.S. and Israel of orchestrating the unrest [1]. - U.S. President Trump warned of severe consequences for Iran if they are found responsible for any deaths related to the unrest [1]. - The focus of the market has shifted from Venezuela to Iran, as Iran's potential supply disruptions have a greater impact on oil prices due to its larger production capacity [2][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - WTI crude oil futures saw a rise of over 3% on Friday, accumulating a gain of over 5% in the past two trading days, marking three consecutive weeks of increases [2][3]. - The options market reflects a shift in risk appetite, with call options skew reaching the highest level since July, indicating traders are paying the highest insurance premiums since the conflict between Israel and Iran began [4]. - Despite rising prices, fundamental pressures remain, with Goldman Sachs noting that clients' bearish sentiment towards oil prices is at a ten-year high [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential for U.S. intervention in Iran if civilian casualties rise, with a 70% likelihood of intervention according to Rapidan Energy Group [7]. - Venezuela's role as a supplier has diminished significantly due to U.S. sanctions and aging infrastructure, while Iran continues to produce over 3 million barrels per day [6]. - The market is currently focused on Iran as the primary source of supply risk, overshadowing concerns about Venezuela [6]. Group 4: Financial Flows and Positioning - The amplification of risks related to Iran is attributed to traders holding significant bearish positions, which could lead to a sharp market reversal if geopolitical tensions force these positions to be unwound [9][10]. - Trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have been buying crude oil, and if prices stabilize, they are expected to continue purchasing [11]. - Over $6 billion is anticipated to flow into the market in the coming days due to annual rebalancing, primarily from commodity index funds [11]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Despite rising geopolitical risks, macro-level expectations of oversupply are limiting the upside potential for oil prices [12]. - The increase in Venezuelan supply and production rises in other regions may keep oil prices trading around $50 in the first quarter [12]. - Historical trends suggest that price spikes due to geopolitical events may be temporary, as seen when oil prices surged following U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities but quickly retreated once production was confirmed unaffected [12].