Why Bernstein Sees 2026–27 as “Big Years” for ASML

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. has been upgraded to "Outperform" by Bernstein, with a price target increase to €1,300 from €800, driven by positive catalysts in the semiconductor industry [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Drivers - The upgrade is based on accelerating memory investment, stronger logic demand, and a more attractive valuation backdrop [1]. - Analyst David Dai highlights that ASML will benefit significantly from the recovery in the memory-chip (DRAM) market, with new production plans from the three largest DRAM manufacturers being underestimated by investors [2]. - The combined production capacity increase from these manufacturers could reach 250,000 wafers per month by 2026, which will create additional demand for ASML's equipment [3]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The lithography intensity for the 1c node is estimated to be 28%, higher than previous nodes, indicating a strong demand for ASML's technology [3]. - Advanced logic is also identified as a growth driver, with TSMC planning to expand its 3nm capacity to 180-200,000 wafers per month to meet AI demand [4]. - The years 2026 and 2027 are positioned as significant for EUV technology and ASML's growth prospects [4].