GE Vernova Inc.(US:GEV) Ge Long Hui·2026-01-10 03:33Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova has been selected as a benchmark asset in the energy infrastructure sector for the 2026 "Global Vision" top ten core assets, highlighting its transformation from a traditional industrial manufacturer to a key player in AI infrastructure [1] Group 1: Competitive Barriers - GE Vernova holds a dominant position in the gas turbine market, forming a "trilateral" structure with Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, controlling over 75% of the global CR3 market [2] - The company is the only giant capable of providing a complete solution from gas power generation to wind energy generation and grid transmission, creating a seamless connection that meets the stable power needs of AI data centers [2] - GE Vernova's service business benefits from a large installed base of gas turbines, generating high-margin service revenue through long-term contracts for parts replacement and maintenance [2][3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for energy is expected to surge due to the explosion of AI computing power, with the International Energy Agency predicting that electricity consumption in data centers will double in the coming years [6] - The aging of electrical grid infrastructure in North America and Europe necessitates urgent upgrades, which GE Vernova's electrification business is well-positioned to address [6] - The transition to renewable energy will require gas turbines as a stable backup power source in the short term, while small modular reactors (SMRs) will support long-term growth [6] Group 3: Business Layout - The gas turbine business serves as the core profit pillar, benefiting from supply-demand imbalances and price increases of 15%-20% compared to 2023 [7] - The electrification business is the fastest-growing segment, with revenue growth exceeding 20% and a backlog of $26 billion in orders [7] - The SMR project is expected to generate significant future orders, particularly from tech giants seeking carbon neutrality [8] Group 4: Financial Outlook - GE Vernova anticipates revenue of $41-42 billion for 2026, with an EBITDA margin of 11%-13%, supported by the growth of both gas turbine and electrification businesses [9] - The company expects to achieve a cumulative free cash flow of $22 billion by 2028, with a generous shareholder return policy including a stock buyback authorization of $10 billion [8][9] Group 5: Investment Perspective - Investing in GE Vernova represents a strategic move into the future of AI infrastructure, as the company is positioned as a core asset in the energy sector amid the ongoing AI computing explosion, grid upgrades, and energy transition [15]